Shiraz Maher

Mali could be the gamble that defines Hollande’s presidency

The crisis in Mali is yet another unintended consequence of the Arab Spring. Specifically, they are a result of the revolution in Libya, where Tuareg rebels who supported Gaddafi were forced to flee after his downfall. Heavily armed and regrouping in Mali, they created the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) which effectively ended the government’s control over the north. Jihadist groups aligned with al-Qaeda then swooped in and established a semi-autonomous Islamic state in the north.

As they pushed south it looked as if they might capture all of Mali, prompting interim President Dioncounda Traore to ask for French assistance. Francois Hollande responded by launching Operation Serval with overwhelming public support both at home and abroad. The mission is straightforward enough: to stop the Islamist push south and re-establish the government’s control over the north.

Yet, neither of these tasks will be easily achieved. Memories of swift and successful interventions in Africa, such as Blair’s foray into Sierra Leone have long recessed. The Malian jihadists are well armed and are exploiting a pattern of increased lawlessness across the Sahel following the Arab Spring. Their willingness to use asymmetrical tactics now also explains the ongoing hostage crisis in Algeria, where 41 foreigners are being held by jihadists unhappy with French involvement in Mali.

Yesterday’s Algerian siege could not have come at a worse time for Hollande. Last Saturday French Special Forces launched an ambitious rescue attempt in Somalia to free an intelligence officer, Dennis Allex, held by the Somali terrorist group al-Shabaab. The mission resulted in two soldiers being killed before it was eventually called off. To compound Hollande’s problems, the bodies of the fallen soldiers were left behind and have been paraded on jihadist forums. This morning al-Shabaab announced they executed Allex in response to the abortive French mission.

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