James Forsyth

Marginals poll suggests the Tories are on course for a majority of four

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An ICM poll of Labour Tory marginals for the News of the World has Cameron getting a majority, albeit one of four. (Although, the write-through saYS that the majority of four assumes that every Unionist MP returned from Ulster will back the Tories which is not a given). These marginals polls are expensive and so are done rarely, but they are a more useful than standard polling as they show you what is happening in the seats that will make most difference to the result. It was famously one of these marginals polls that led to Brown calling off the election in 2007.

Written byJames Forsyth

James Forsyth is Political Editor of the Spectator. He is also a columnist in The Sun.

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