It’s time for Marine Le Pen to quit and spend more time with her Bengal cats. More importantly, it’s time for the third of French voters who support her to face the reality that her programme is incoherent and unachievable.
Her election to the presidency in 2027 would be a disaster for France and a missed opportunity to repair what ails the French republic.
That Marine Le Pen is called ‘far-right’ is a testament to the laziness of journalists
This may be a counterintuitive argument at a time when all opinion polls show that Marine Le Pen is the most favoured candidate for the French presidency in 2027. It’s true that after three failed attempts at the Elysée and 40 years in political life, she’s the most recognisable name on the playing field. A recent Harris Interactive Poll showed that in the first round of the 2027 election Marine Le Pen (RN) would win and get through to the second round, with 31 per cent of the votes, versus the candidacy of Macron’s former prime minister, the centrist Édouard Philippe on 21 per cent. But at this stage, this is a poll of name recognition, primarily.
Let’s allow reality to intrude. Convicted of embezzlement, although for her party’s gain and not her personal benefit, Marine Le Pen is currently ineligible to run. Her supporters say her sentence is disproportionate and politically motivated. The wheels of her appeal are grinding slowly. She may or may not overturn her ineligibility. Much as she adopts the martyrdom mantle of Joan of Arc, is she a credible candidate?
It appears the knives are being sharpened. Her presumed successor, the precocious Jordan Bardella, is thought by her to be on manoeuvres. He said he’s ready to replace her, if necessary. Wrong move. She’s as mad at him as one of her cats, I am told. ‘They’re at war,’ says a friend of Marine.
Maybe, but even if they kiss and make up, the Rassemblement National doesn’t have a clear candidate. Maybe her, maybe him. And Marine has a reputation for harbouring grudges.
Édouard Philippe is a recognisable name but the notion that he could get 21 per cent in a real-world election seems to me a complete fantasy. I think the poll is wrong. I don’t see him getting a clear run, or the money. The competition will be from Retailleau and the rejuvenated Républicains, not from the squishy centre. Retailleau’s numbers are the ones to watch.
The real problem though is the lack of credibility of the Rassemblement National’s project, inasmuch as it is comprehensible. Lower taxes. Lower retirement ages. Ten per cent salary boost. Pro Europe. Anti Europe. Anti-Euro. But now unenthusiastically pro-Euro. Lower energy prices. Nationalised motorways. Lower VAT on fuel. France-first policies that directly attack the single market. Zero tolerance law and order.
Who will pay? How will it be done? None of this is serious. Marine is at her core a socialist dreamer, almost a Poujadist, a nationalist in economics as well as on the terrain of law, order and national identity. That she is called ‘far-right’ is a testament to the laziness of journalists.
She also bears the name Le Pen, and much as she has tried to detoxify her father’s fascisty heritage, that name scares too many voters for her ever to win an election. Her resilience is admirable but she is the obstacle to the RN ever gaining power, not the vehicle. Other than leading her party, which has always been a family affair, she has no evident qualifications for the presidency.
Bardella, just 29, fancies himself perhaps too much. He and Marine were publicly lovey-dovey together when I saw them in Narbonne on Mayday. But Jordan had already made the mistake of saying he would run, if necessary. Marine has never tolerated competition.
As if the Marine Le Pen cépage was not already past its best-before date, there is now finally credible competition to the hopeless RN on the right, from Bruno Retailleau, the nterior minister, elected head of the Républicains by a landslide.
He has not just stolen the RN’s ground on law and order, he has taken practical steps to meet voter expectations. James Tidmarsh has written here of his formidable political position.
The French presidential election campaign is shockingly already underway, although it is still 22 months from the first round of voting. Retailleau is firmly in the ring. Le Pen and Bardella are tussling.
The left has yet to throw out a credible candidate. The left parties loathe one another. Jean-Luc Mélenchon fancies his chances. The farcical state of affairs on the left reached peak comedy when François Hollande announced he was ready to offer himself.
And as for the centre – Macron’s centre – well it’s practically invisible. The current prime minister, François Bayrou, who once fancied himself for the top job, is lately wandering around Paris ready to quit. Gabriel Attal, another of many former prime ministers, is sulking. Despite the polls, Édouard Philippe with his tiny centrist Horizons party is motionless.
France is sometimes said to be a country that while proclaiming itself to be revolutionary, is terrified of change. And electing Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella is just too much of a risk, especially given their economic incoherence.
The Républicains under their new leader have now got an opportunity to unite the right with a project that recognises voter concerns with immigration, nationality and order, while remaining broadly safe on the economy.
It’s hard to see France finding solutions to its multiple economic and social crises, but it’s certain that the Rassemblement National would make them worse.
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