Matthew Lynn Matthew Lynn

Mark Carney is finally right about Brexit | 13 February 2019

Cripes. At this rate the CBI will be putting out reports on Brexit’s potential benefits, George Osborne will be reminding us he could always see its upside, and even the FT will be running leaders saying Brexit doesn’t quite mean the end of the world. There have been plenty of twists and turns in our tortured departure from the European Union but few quite so unexpected as the apparent conversion of the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney to the cause.

In a speech yesterday, Carney didn’t opt for any of the apocalyptic stuff – no food on the shelves at Tesco, pensioners dying in hospitals because of a shortage of medicines, slight delays at the Tuscany airports – but instead he took a more measured, reasonable approach. The man who was one of the overlords of Project Fear argued that our departure from the EU might well be the beginning of a more balanced, inclusive way of managing the economy. “Brexit is the first test of a new global order and could prove the acid test of whether a way can be found to broaden the benefits of openness while enhancing democratic accountability,” he said. “Brexit can lead to a new form of international co-operation and cross-border commerce built on a better balance of local and supranational authorities.” Sure, there were still risks, especially if we crash out without a deal, and there are some signs of investment slowing. But it might also lead to more trade in services, especially for smaller and tech based companies, which would spread the benefits of growth more evenly than the existing system.

Once you get over the initial shock of Carney having anything positive to say about our departure from the EU at all, there are two important points in Carney’s speech.

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