May’s cruellest month

Theresa May is about to embark on the toughest month of her premiership to date. Next week, she must persuade her cabinet to agree a common position on Britain’s future relationship with the European Union. The following week, she will attend a Nato summit which may well shake the foundations of the alliance. Then, without a moment to catch her breath, she must host Donald Trump when he visits the UK. As if that weren’t enough, she must also win a Commons vote on Britain leaving the customs union.

It is tempting to predict that the cabinet meeting at Chequers in the coming days will result in yet another elaborate compromise. After all, that is what happened when the Brexit inner cabinet was last summoned in February to her country retreat for a ‘crunch meeting’. It ended in everyone agreeing that progress had been made towards ‘managed divergence’. One of those present recalls that the drinks before dinner were one of the few times this government seemed at ease with itself. Remainers and Leavers were, for once, content in each other’s company.

A repeat of that seems unlikely. Time is running out. The government must now make decisions on some of the most controversial issues, such as the customs union. Tensions within the cabinet are far worse than they were in February. The Brexit Secretary, David Davis, has, in the words of one well-connected Tory, ‘been goaded beyond endurance’ by Theresa May’s sherpa Olly Robbins taking ever greater charge of the negotiations. Boris Johnson grows more frustrated. He believes that the government is stumbling into an unfulfilling Brexit and that long-term opportunities are being jettisoned for fear of creating short-term disruption. Meanwhile, Greg Clark, the Business Secretary, is advocating a soft Brexit. He wants his colleagues to listen to the warnings of business, rather than dismiss them.