The bad news for Theresa May is that Brexit isn’t over. She might have agreed terms with the European Commission and discussed these with her cabinet, but perhaps her most difficult task awaits: she must now get it through Parliament.
Even if she had struck a good deal, it would have struggled to pass. May only has a majority thanks to her confidence-and-supply deal with the Democratic Unionist Party. Northern Ireland was always going to be one of the most contentious parts of Brexit, as the EU has demanded that its future is decided first — in the legally binding withdrawal agreement — rather than in the coming UK/EU trade negotiations.
In theory, the DUP has agreed to support the Tories over Brexit. But things look different now: their language and tactics (including voting against the government, and for the publication of the legal advice on the backstop) suggest they won’t back her deal. It seems the government suspects as much, which is why the DUP appears to have been kept out of the loop with both its Westminster leader, Nigel Dodds, and Arlene Foster attacking the putative deal.
No. 10 claims victory, saying May has removed the Northern Ireland backstop by making the backstop UK-wide. However, there are still Northern Ireland-specific provisions tucked away in there.
Rather like the princess who could still feel the pea despite umpteen mattresses being placed on top of it, the DUP can sense the Northern Ireland-specific requirements buried under the UK-wide backstop. For this reason, it is highly unlikely to support the withdrawal agreement. Without DUP support, the vote begins to look very tight for May — and that’s before you even consider the many Tory rebellions she is likely to face.
The first will come from Brexit ultras who don’t regard her deal as a proper Brexit.
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