May’s summer madness

The summer holidays couldn’t come soon enough for Theresa May. So desperate was she to get MPs away from Westminster that she wanted to send them home early. Normally, prime ministers would do almost anything to avoid headlines such as ‘MPs vote to go to the beach’. But in these circumstances, Downing Street decided that was the lesser of two evils.

In the end, Members of Parliament persuaded No. 10 that it would be wrong for the government to send the Commons into recess at a time of looming national crisis. It would have looked like an abdication of responsibility. But the fact that this idea was even contemplated reveals the panic gripping the Tory hierarchy.

Westminster is more febrile now than it has been in more than a decade. There’s constant chatter suggesting that disaffected Tories are close to having the 48 letters needed to cause a vote of no confidence in May. The government’s desire to send MPs home early lends credence to that.

One of May’s problems is that the two factions of the Tory party both feel she has let them down. Most Brexiteers feel that her Chequers deal is a dud, that it circumvents her own red lines and breaks faith with her commitments. At the same time, those Tories who want a soft Brexit are furious that the government accepted the Brexit ultras’ amendments on Monday. They feel that this shows she still isn’t prepared to stand up to their opponents in the party.

Compounding this problem is the fact that May still doesn’t have the votes to pass her Chequers plan. Indeed, support is declining all the time. Not only are more Eurosceptic MPs turning against the deal as they hear more complaints about it (mainly from irate constituents) but those who want a softer Brexit are also abandoning it.