John McCain has not had much luck recently. Last week while Obama was receiving acres of news coverage and using iconic sights as the backdrop to his photo-ops, McCain was struggling to stay in the news and had to cancel his planned photo-op on an oil rig because of the conditions. The press were beginning to write stories filled with quotes from irritated Republicans about where it is all going wrong for the campaign. Today just to compound things, the news broke that McCain—who has had skin cancer in the past—has had a mole removed from his face threatening to spark a whole round of stories about his age, he’d be the oldest president ever inaugurated for a first term, and his medical record. But a new Gallup poll showing McCain ahead by 49 to 45 among likely voters will probably earn the McCain campaign some breathing space, McCain is up ten points from last month when he trailed by 50 to 44.
One would be crazy to declare the race flipped on the basis on one poll, especially one that is at odds with most other recent polls. (Gallup’s own tracking poll has Obama up by eight). But this poll should stop the media from writing McCain’s political obit and calm the nerves of nervous Republicans. It also will make commentators hesitate from declaring Obama’s overseas trip a total success; the poll was conducted from Friday through Sunday so after all of Obama’s European trip apart from his London stop.
The aim of the McCain campaign has always been to stay within touching distance of Obama over the summer and then hope to pass him in the post-Labour Day sprint. At the moment with Obama only ahead by 3.2 points in the polling average, the McCain campaign is–despite all of its missteps–managing to achieve the first part of this task.
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