John McCain faces an almost impossible task over the next three weeks. He has to claw back at least a six point deficit, the new Washington Post poll has the gap at 10 points, as the candidate of the incumbent party in an environment where 90 percent of registered voters think that the country has “gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track”.
Today, he unveiled a new stump speech. It uses the word fight, or some variation of it, 17 times and is beautifully written but it is hard to see it being a game changer. McCain almost certainly needs some outside event to intervene if he is going to get back into this race which seems to be breaking decisively in Obama’s favour.
But at this juncture it is worth remembering two things. First, in these circumstances it is quite impressive that McCain isn’t further behind. Second, a defeat this year will not wipe out the many achievements of McCain’s life in public service. Indeed, there is one part of McCain’s legacy that ranks up there with those of presidents. If it had not been for McCain, the US mission in Iraq may well have failed by now.
After the 2006 mid-terms many in the Republican Party wanted to wash their hands of Iraq, believing it to be a drag on their electoral chances and doomed to failure. President Bush, though, had finally decided to change strategy. It was by no means certain that Congressional support would hold for this move. But McCain’s willingness to smack down any alternative scheme played a crucial role in keeping both Congressional Republicans and those Republicans running for president on board. If they had bolted, the surge would probably never have happened.
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