Constantin Eckner

Merkel faces some tough decisions as Germany eases its lockdown

Germans eagerly awaited Angela Merkel’s announcement this week about a potential exit strategy for Germany, the country with one of the lowest Covid-19 death rates in Europe. Many Germans expected a turning point and a possible return to everyday life. What they got was only a first small step back to normal.

Initially the chancellor said that the lockdown would be eased if confirmed coronavirus cases only doubled every tenth day. The current doubling time is over a month. But Merkel and the 16 state prime ministers jointly decided to extend most of the measures until early May. Only shops and retailers up to a size of 800 square metres, zoos, libraries, and car dealerships can reopen soon. Hotels, theatres, cinemas, and churches remain closed until further notice.

There’s one word to describe German politics at the moment: caution. The chancellery in Berlin is afraid of a coronavirus rebound if all restrictions are lifted too soon. And politicians know that once certain restrictions are lifted they can probably never be put back in place again. Once kids are back in school, it will be incredibly hard to send them back home before the summer break. Once people go back to work it will be difficult to convince them that another lockdown is justified.

Experts argue that as long as there is no vaccine the basic reproduction number has to be 1.0 or lower. Currently, the number is at 1.0 in Germany. If, however, the number rises to 1.2 again, Germany’s healthcare system might collapse by mid-July. That’s exactly what Merkel tried to explain to the public in her televised announcement on Wednesday. She warned that the country had only achieved a ‘fragile, partial success’ against the coronavirus outbreak

Instead of a political statement from the chancellor, Germans received a technical explanation from Merkel, the former scientist with a PhD in physics.

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