Miliband’s NHS pledge

Ah, there he is! With the coalition — and David Cameron — dominating the political news on every day of this half-term week, Ed Miliband has finally caused a ripple in the national consciousness. He’s appearing before nurses in Bolton today to make a pledge:

‘Before he became Prime Minister, David Cameron concealed his plans for creeping privatisation of our National Health Service. So people didn’t get a vote on these plans at the last election. But I give you my word that if he goes ahead, they will be a defining issue at the next.’

Put aside the rhetoric about ‘creeping privatisation’ (which would surely make Tony Blair shudder), and it’s understandable why Miliband is stressing this point. His recent successes in PMQs, and Cameron’s difficulties, have all come because of the health service — and Labour enjoys some significant poll leads on the issue. If the NHS is the closest thing we have to a national religion, then the Labour leader is hoping to stir up some sectarian fervour.

And yet Miliband still ought to question how far this can get him. Of course, making the NHS ‘a defining issue’ issue at the next election doesn’t mean that Labour won’t have other ‘defining issues’ too — but it’s worth noting that the NHS is only a middling priority for the public at the moment. The economy trumps all, as this chart from Ipsos MORI suggests:

And, as we know, the Tories currently enjoy poll leads on the economy (as well as on immigration, law and order, etc — see the latest YouGov numbers here).

Strangely enough, Labour are still regarded as the best party to handle schools; so were the next election all about public services, then it could be easier for them. But the chances of that are naught. Even if public opinion shifts in the meantime, Miliband will still have to do more to persuade on the economy — apart from any pledges on the NHS.