Tighter Covid restrictions were being urged by SAGE, the government’s committee of scientific advisers. The meeting was held on 8 October, and minutes have just been released. In spite of its calls for greater transparency, the ‘worst-case scenario’ it refers to remains confidential. The Spectator has published the July 30 draft of this scenario this week.
Summary
Incidence and prevalence across the UK continue to increase, and data show clear increases in hospital and ICU admissions, particularly in the North of England.
In England the number of infections and hospital admissions is exceeding the Reasonable Worst Case Scenario (RWCS) planning levels at this time. Projections also indicate the number of deaths is highly likely to exceed Reasonable Worst Case planning levels within the next two weeks.
Data show lower incidence and prevalence in London compared to some other UK cities, but there is variation within London. The reasons for apparent lower levels in London are not known but could include some degree of immunity (lower than 20%); different population behaviours because London was hard hit in the first wave; the effects of the loss of tourism and people working from home; differences in population structure and housing densities; or differences in levels of deprivation compared to other cities.
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