Douglas Davis

Moderate Arab states need Israel to succeed

Douglas Davis says that if Hamas holds out it will shift the balance of power in the Middle East further towards Iran and the radicals

Pity the international diplomats. Hardly back from their Christmas break, they were plunged into yet another dizzying round of declamations and démarches over a fresh bout of Israeli misbehaviour, this time in Gaza. By midweek, diplomacy had achieved a partial success when Israel agreed to a daily pause for the distribution of humanitarian supplies. But it was not yet ready to end the war-fighting.

Crocodiles apart, few would have shed tears for Hamas. All the parties understand that the outcome of the conflict could reverberate far beyond Gaza, with implications for the stability of the entire region.

No one, of course, enjoyed seeing chunks of the Gaza Strip reduced to rubble or Palestinian civilians killed and injured, as in Tuesday’s tragically unintended strike on the al-Fakhura school in the Jabaliya refugee camp. At the same time, few would have been discomfited at the spectre of Hamas taking a hammering. For domestic consumption, Arab leaders hedged their rhetorical bets, condemning Israel for the attack while blaming Hamas for initiating the crisis. In most Middle Eastern capitals, the sale of remedies for aching forked tongues would have defied the credit crunch.

This was evident at a troubled Arab League meeting in Cairo. Following ritual denunciations of Israel, it was left to Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, to excoriate Hamas for splitting from Fatah in the post-Arafat era and precipitating the Israeli attack. ‘We are telling our Palestinian brothers,’ he declared, ‘that your Arab nation cannot extend a real helping hand if you don’t extend your own hands to each other with love.’ Less elegantly, Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak counselled Arab states that were inclined to support Hamas to mind their own business.

Arab leaders have cause for concern. Firstly, a perceived Hamas triumph against Israel has the potential to ignite the Arab street and destabilise a slew of moderate Arab states from Egypt to Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

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