US diplomat Brett McGurk is being teased again. In 2008, he was in Iraq, negotiating with Nouri al-Maliki’s government the ‘Status of Forces Agreement’ that determined the withdrawal of American soldiers. At the same time, he was having an affair with a Wall Street Journal reporter. Emails between the pair were leaked a few years later when Barack Obama nominated McGurk to become ambassador to Iraq. ‘Stop being such a tease!’ ‘Call me before you come over.’ ‘I had a very real case of blue balls last night!’
Today, McGurk is leading the Biden administration’s negotiations to ‘normalise’ the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and the Saudi’s have just dangled it right in front of him. In return for normalisation, they want a security agreement with America, for easier access to American military equipment; they want America to help them build a civilian nuclear programme, for access to American nuclear material and technology; and they want a less regulated arms trade. With America. Nothing from Israel.
The Saudi demands show how important the normalisation process has become to the US. Or how important the Saudis think it has become. After Trump signed the Abraham Accords two and a half years ago, and the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Bahrain and Sudan restarted their relations with Israel, getting the Saudis to normalise too became an American foreign policy priority. Perhaps officials in Washington think it’ll make the last two decades of mishaps in the Middle East worth it. Peace in the Arab world, finally.
In truth, the Saudi demands look like extortion. Saudi Arabia and Israel already get on pretty well, and Israeli investors can do business with Saudis by, for example, going through the UAE, using an Abu Dhabi Global Market License. What more would normalisation offer? Official relations, easier trade and tourism. Some symbolism too. In return, America would have to give the kingdom nuclear technology and security guarantees. It would be an odd way for America to disengage from the Middle East.
Just hours after giving America their demands for peace with Israel, Saudi Arabia agreed to restart diplomatic relations with Iran, Israel’s archenemy, in a deal brokered by China. Official relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran ended six years ago after the Saudis executed a Shia cleric. A mob of Iranians (Iran is a majority Shiite country) retaliated by attacking the Saudi embassy in Tehran, and the consulate in Mashhad. On Friday in Beijing, Ali Shamkhani, from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, met with the Saudi national security adviser, Musaad bin Mohammed al-Aiban, to sign the deal. Wang Yi, China’s top foreign policy official, stood alongside them, smiling.
The agreement supposedly shows that China can now rival America in the Middle East, but Washington has little reason to worry. Iran and Saudi Arabia had been privately negotiating this deal for years, meeting in secret in Oman and Iraq. China just pushed it over the line, and it suited both Saudi Arabia and Iran to let them host the photo op and take the credit. China is Iran’s biggest trading partner, and the biggest buyer of Saudi oil. Plus, the Americans could never have helped – their relationship with Iran is worse than Saudi Arabia’s.
The agreement itself might not change much, either. It outlines a two-month period to discuss the details of reopening embassies, and the New York Times says that Iran has promised to ‘stop further attacks on Saudi Arabia and curtail support for militant groups that have targeted the kingdom.’ Stopping the proxy wars would be big, but it’ll need the blessing of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, who have made provoking regional conflict central to how they work. The deal makes war between Saudi Arabia and Iran unlikely, but it’s likely that little will change in the working relationship between them.
Even if there’s little substance behind the deals with Israel and Iran, it shows that Saudi Arabia is at least trying to make friends. It’s looking for a way out of the conflict in Yemen, too, and could announce a rapprochement with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad at the upcoming Arab League summit. ‘There’s a consensus growing that the status quo is not workable’, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, the foreign minister, said recently. Mohammad bin Salman wants to focus on growing the Saudi economy and ending the kingdom’s dependence on oil sales. The deals with Israel and Iran will make that easier. Conflict causes too much hassle.
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