‘Black swan’ theory, developed by the writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb, refers to unexpected events that have extreme consequences but are rationalised afterwards by pundits who say ‘That was always going to happen.’ Covid was a big one; Putin’s war on Ukraine another. It’s in the nature of global events that there’s always a dark-feathered disruptor lurking somewhere, waiting to make its presence felt. Right now, it just might be hidden in reports of protestors in Zhengzhou, capital of China’s Henan province, demanding their money back from four local banks that suspended withdrawals in April.
Runs on small banks are not unknown in China; nor is embezzlement by corrupt managers. The authorities’ response – using security forces to smash crowds and changing some depositors’ Covid-app codes from green to red to prevent them travelling to protest – is par for the course under Xi Jinping, whose greatest fear is widespread social unrest.
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