The battle for Britain to remain in or leave the European Union is now very tight. What UK Thinks, a new website providing non-partisan information on the referendum, reports on a new poll from YouGov and the ESCR that looks at the influence party leaders may have on the referendum. Without any leader mentioned, 50.6 per cent would vote to remain in, compared to 49.4 per cent who would vote to leave — a tiny 1.2 per centage point difference. Unsurprisingly, the poll finds that a large majority of those inclined to vote to leave are Conservatives, while the Remain vote is comprised of Labour, SNP and Lib Dem backers.
Both David Cameron and Jeremy Corbyn’s recommendations will have an impact on the vote. If the Prime Minister recommends staying in the EU, the polling suggests it would boost the Remain vote to 52.3 per cent, an increase of almost two points, while Leave goes down to 47.7 per cent. If Corbyn recommends that Britain should stay in the EU, it would increase the Remain vote by 2.8 points to 53.4 per cent. But if Corbyn made a U-turn and backed a Brexit, the Leave vote would increase by two points to 51.4 per cent. All these changes might seem small but most are statistically significant and they show how the endorsement of the party leaders will have an impact on how people will vote in the referendum – and they could effect the result.
Nigel Farage on the other hand probably won’t have much of an impact on the vote — possibly because his recommendation to Leave is already pretty well known. But there is some evidence of a backlash effect. When those polled were told that Farage was recommending a Brexit, support for staying in among Tory voters dropped by six per cent, but increased by eight per cent among Liberal Democrats — not a massive surprise.
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