Over the past half hour, the famous New York Times ‘Needle’ has moved out of the ‘toss-up’ range, and into the ‘Trump range’.
As of 2.47 a.m. UK time, the Grey Lady gives Donald Trump a 69 per cent chance of returning to the White House. The model estimates Trump will get 286 Electoral College votes (he needs 270), whereas Harris will get 252.
The ‘Needle’, according to the NYT, is the product of ‘nearly 100 Times journalists, engineers, statisticians, data experts and researchers’. The paper says: ‘As more votes come in, the Needle becomes more “confident” in the final outcome.’
It’s still pretty early, as results go. Counting in Pennsylvania, perhaps the key swing state, could go on and on. And a 69 per cent chance for Trump still means a 31 per cent chance for Harris.
However, as of now, the Needle’s pointing in the right direction for Trump.
Update, as of 3.47 a.m. The Needle is now going as high as an 87 per cent chance for Trump.
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