Stephen Daisley Stephen Daisley

Nicola Sturgeon has fallen into a trap of her own making

Nicola Sturgeon is expert at laying traps for her opponents but this time she may have ensnared herself. During the May 2016 Holyrood elections, the SNP leader and occasional First Minister said a Leave vote in the upcoming EU referendum should be grounds for a second ballot on independence. This, of course, was when Remain was expected to win and when England voted Out while Scotland voted In, Sturgeon’s bluff was called. She has spent the past three years devising evermore elaborate ruses to distract her restive grassroots. The latest is a Citizens’ Assembly, a forum used in Ireland to ease in constitutional changes on gay marriage and abortion.  

The idea is to bring together 120 randomly-selected Scots to ruminate on the future of the nation. The Caledonian Sanhedrin will, in theory, consider questions like ‘what kind of country are we seeking to build?’ and ‘how can we overcome the challenges Scotland faces, including Brexit?’ It sounds like a jolly old focus group — each member will get £1,200 plus expenses for six weekends’ work — and a harmless if woolly exercise. However, Sturgeon announced it alongside her most recent thinking on the best timing for Indyref2 (next year) and enabling legislation for a fresh plebiscite. In all, her Citizens’ Assembly speech contained 22 references to independence and statements like: ‘The Westminster system of government simply does not serve Scotland’s interests’. 

In pairing the Citizens’ Assembly with Indyref 2, Sturgeon positioned the former as a stepping stone to the latter to placate her supporters. The problem is that everyone else heard the speech too and made the same connection. Nor did it help that Sturgeon put Mike Russell, one of her most oppugnant ministers, in charge. The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are boycotting the body, viewing it as a crowbar for independence, while Scottish Labour are willing to participate as long as the exercise ‘remain[s] free from the government’s ambition for another referendum’. 

Their optimism appears to be in vain.

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