Nicola Sturgeon did not want Stephen Flynn to be the new leader of the SNP at Westminster. His victory represents not only a generational shift – Flynn is 34 and his deputy Mhairi Black is 28 – but a sharp left turn in political sensibilities. Where outgoing Commons leader Ian Blackford was cautious and loyal to Sturgeon, the Flynn-Black team is expected to be more independent-minded.
Their instincts are closer to those of the SNP grassroots: they are impatient with the pace of progress towards another referendum. The Supreme Court ruling on where the power to call a referendum lies has only thrown such frustrations into relief. The SNP will have to find a new way forward and a fresher, younger face was thought better suited to that task.
Flynn’s victory raises some important questions. Will he and Sturgeon manage to work together or are we in for tense relations between Holyrood and Westminster? SNP MPs have tended to vote as a bloc, their positions dictated by Sturgeon from Edinburgh, an arrangement for which there is dwindling enthusiasm. A little more autonomy and maybe even policy divergence should be expected but there are limits. Sturgeon and Flynn will be aware that any disunity will be seized on by a Scottish Labour party already edging upwards in the polls.
Will Flynn promote Joanna Cherry? The celebrated KC was unceremoniously dropped from the frontbench last February. Cherry has been at odds with Sturgeon over independence strategy and the trans debate. Her outspoken defence of women’s rights has been met with a particularly ugly campaign of vilification, including from some on her side of politics.
Given that she is generally agreed to be one of the party’s most effective communicators and back-stage operators, the decision to can her was regarded as petty, if not downright mad, even by political opponents. (Protesting her dismissal, Jacob Rees-Mogg described her as ‘one of the most intelligent and careful scrutinisers of government, not just on her benches but in this House’.) It has been reported that Flynn will offer her a top job and while this might cause some friction with Sturgeon it would bring this shoddy affair to a close.
What will the SNP do now? Having lost in court, Sturgeon says the next election will be a ‘de facto referendum’. This is, of course, impossible to enforce – elections are about forming governments, nothing else – but having pinned her political future on it, Sturgeon must be seen to deliver. With focus moving from Holyrood to Westminster, the Commons group will come under intense scrutiny and SNP supporters will be looking for something more than mere rhetoric. Stephen Flynn has an unenviable task ahead of him.
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