Labour has a lot of reasons to be thankful for Nigel Farage. Reform was already creeping up on the Tories in the polls, even before the party’s honorary president announced this week that he would take up the role of leader and stand in Clacton. Now the polls are nearly neck-and-neck. The most recent YouGov survey – published on Wednesday, accounting for Farage’s announcement but not Tuesday night’s debate – showed Reform on 17 per cent, a mere two points behind the Conservatives.
As Katy Balls notes in this week’s magazine, Farage likes to insist that Reform tends to take more votes from Labour than the Tories, but the main bloc up for grabs seems to be 2019 Tory voters. ‘Those people who are saying they’re going to vote Labour won’t when they see that I’m here and what I’m standing for in this election’, Farage told Channel 4 this week. Perhaps, but Boris Johnson’s supporters in the Red Wall are just as likely to see him too.
This is one of the many gifts Farage has handed Labour by entering the race this week. Another is on tax: by sucking all the oxygen out of the campaign, the persistent pursuit of Labour’s tax agenda has let up. The momentum building to the big reveal about the party’s tax and spend plans has largely subsided, as the focus – and entertainment – has pivoted to Farage.
Last week – before Farage’s announcements – Labour were being forced to grapple with their plans for tax. Asked repeatedly what taxes would rise under a Labour government, both Keir Starmer and his shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, came very close to ruling out any more increases within a matter of days. Reeves once again ruled out income tax rises on Sunday and by Tuesday she was promising what had already been announced – including a bigger windfall tax on oil and gas companies and VAT on private-school fees – was ‘the sum of the tax changes’ that Labour was bringing in.
But the focus shifted. In the ITV leaders’ debate, Starmer was only asked to rule out the taxes he has already said he will not raise over the next parliament – leaving a long list of questions about what else Labour might do. Only yesterday the Guardian revealed growing pressure from shadow ministers on Starmer and Reeves to commit to other major revenue raisers, including an increase to capital gains tax. These are questions Labour still needs to answer, but not as quickly or with as much focus on these issues, with Farage in the game.
Of course it isn’t just Reform enabling Labour to have an easier ride. But for Starmer, keeping tax out of the headlines – and avoiding particular tax commitments – is the best outcome his party can get. The irony is stark: Farage entered this race, in part, to draw attention to the near-record high tax burden that he thinks could be made even heavier by Labour. But since jumping into the campaign, Labour’s had far fewer questions to answer.
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