Backbenchers are discussing when to give Downing Street a bloody nose, a former prime minister is on the warpath and the government is fighting on multiple fronts. All of this is contributing to the heated atmosphere at Westminster. But one thing is keeping Tory tempers in check: the party’s poll lead.
As long as the government is ahead in the polls, it is hard to declare that it is in crisis. This lead also limits the frustration of Tory MPs. You can’t claim that this or that event will lead to the Conservatives losing the next election when the opposition are still behind.
Why are the Tories still ahead despite such a torrid summer? To one of those involved with the Tories’ 2019 election victory, the answer is obvious: the party has a core vote of 30 per cent, to which it has added another 10 per cent who are Brexit enthusiasts. This gives them a floor of 40 per cent and explains why all the U-turns and missteps haven’t seen them slip behind Labour.
If this analysis is correct, then the Tories would be electorally wise to prioritise maintaining their Brexit coalition. They would not want to give any ammunition to those who are eager to cry ‘Brexit betrayed’ at any deal. They would want to avoid spurring the creation of a new party dedicated to pushing for a total Brexit and a more vigorous approach to the culture war, the small boats crossing the Channel and the like.
A new party may already be stirring. There are, as one person experienced in the setting up of new parties on the right observes, ‘lots of things going on in the undergrowth’. It is generally recognised by those most enthusiastic for a new party that Nigel Farage should have first dibs on getting it started.
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