The sea lanes of Europe were busy last weekend. On Sunday, more than 700 migrants crossed the Channel from France to England, taking the total number this year to 18,342 – a 13 per cent increase on 2023. On the same day, 421 migrants in twelve boats disembarked on the Italian island of Lampedusa, and more have arrived since, swelling the numbers to over 500.
The diversity of the nationalities of arrivals in Lampedusa is a fascinating and alarming snapshot of the crisis confronting Europe. The people stepping ashore hailed from Egypt, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Ghana, Gambia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Liberia and Syria.
There are now too many gangs operating in Asia, the Middle East and Africa
Some set out in their boats from Libya and others from Tunisia. The latter is the cheaper route, with the migrants paying the smugglers between £500 to £1,500 pounds (the cheapest route is from Sfax, which is 116 miles west of Lampedusa). Migrants who set sail from the more distant Libya paid between £3,000 to £7,000 for their place in the boat.
The cost of crossing the Mediterranean to Europe underlines what the American academic, Stephen Smith, explained in his 2018 book, The Scramble for Europe: namely, it is the young African middle-class who are migrating, and not the poorest and most downtrodden. The internet and social media allows this demographic to glimpse what they perceive to be greater potential for personal growth in Europe; according to Smith these young middle class resent the ‘rule of elders’ in Africa that restricts this growth. In his book, Smith predicted that migration from Africa has only just started and will increase enormously in the decades ahead.
It is not just Africans who see Europe as the promised land. Increasingly, it is the target for south Asians, particularly Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis.
Nearly 40,000 migrants have arrived in Italy this year and 7,615 are from Bangladesh, the highest number of any country. The Italian authorities fear that this figure will surge in the months ahead given the recent political upheaval in Bangladesh. Student protests that began in July evolved into a widespread uprising against prime minister Sheikh Hasina. Hundreds were killed and the premier fled, leaving behind a volatile country presided over by an interim government that has promised to soon hold parliamentary elections.
The unrest in Bangladesh is similar to that seen in a myriad countries across the developing world in recent years; there have been seven coup d’etats in Africa since 2020, while conflict has ravaged Sudan, Syria and the Yemen. In each case, one consequence is an increase in migration to Europe.
The European Union is striving to contain this huge exodus. In the last 18 months its commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, has signed deals with Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Mauritania and Lebanon in the hope their governments will help limit the flow.
The numbers of migrants crossing into Europe are down on 2023 – 94,009 arrived in Italy in the first seven months of last year – so the EU’s strategy is having an effect. Nonetheless, tens of thousands continue to arrive, paying considerable sums of money to the well-organised criminal gangs who control the routes. These gangs will be encouraged to step up their illicit business by the political vacuum in France and the election in Britain of a Labour government.
It is reported this week that Keir Starmer has held talks with his Italian counterpart, Giorgia Meloni, about the challenge of illegal immigration. The British PM believes tackling the criminal gangs is the most effective way of stopping the boats.
This is unlikely to work. There are now too many gangs operating in Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Break up one and another will take its place, attracted by the relatively easy riches on offer.
According to a report earlier this year by the Global Initiative against Transnational Organised Crime, one people-smuggling gang can earn as much as one million dollars (£780,000) a month. Not as lucrative as trafficking drugs, maybe, but unlike that trade, the risk is borne not by the smugglers but by the people being smuggled. They are the ones in jeopardy when they climb into a flimsy boat and push off into the open water.
But it is a risk huge numbers are willing to take. Europe is their dream and they will not be deterred, not by danger or by deals done by the EU.
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