No turning back

Tony Blair’s parting shot to his party — ‘You’re the future now’ — had the ring of irony. Much is uncertain after Labour’s conference in Manchester, not least the Prime Minister’s likely leaving date and the prospects for a full-blown leadership contest. But the notion that this exhausted, introspective and bitter party is ‘the future’ can be dismissed out of hand.

Mr Blair’s farewell was a formidable reminder of his performing talents and also of his utility to his party: as we said last week, he has acted for 12 years as a human shield between the public and Labour. Now that he is going, the movement will have to fend for itself without its talented ambassador to the rest of the country. Gordon Brown believes he can perform this role in a different, less flashy way. His own speech showed that he has lost none of his ambition, determination and Calvinist conviction. Whether these implacable characteristics are enough to propel Labour to a fourth term is much less clear.

That said, the worst conclusion that Conservatives gathering in Bournemouth could draw is that the task ahead of them is now straightforward, and that the process of party reform can now be slowed or even — as some would like — halted altogether. The Tories still have fewer seats than Michael Foot won in the 1983 election. David Cameron’s poll lead is resilient rather than commanding. The public is deeply exasperated with Labour. But it is not yet prepared to hand the keys to No. 10 to the Conservative party.

In broad terms, Mr Blair correctly identified the problems that face the country, which are, as he said, ‘essentially global’. Economic competitiveness, population mobility, crime networks, Islamist terrorism, the astonishing impact of information technology: all are global phenomena.