James Forsyth

Obama is now the most likely Democratic nominee

Obama is now the most likely Democratic nominee
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Barack Obama must now be regarded as the favourite to win the Democratic nomination. He has absolutely thumped Hillary Clinton in Iowa, 38% to 29% with 99% of precincts reporting. Barring an unforeseen event, one has to assume that the momentum from this win will carry him to victory in New Hampshire five days from now. If Hillary finds herself 0 for 2 heading to South Carolina with Obama having proved to black voters that he can win in heavily white states then she is in real trouble. Another bonus for Obama is that the way he won tonight--bringing in independents, disillusioned Republicans and first time voters—bolsters his message that he is the candidate who can bring America together.

When Obama addressed his victory rally he looked and sounded like a man who believed that he will be president—and the crowd acted like they believed it too. With his voice recovered, Obama’s delivery was more powerful than yesterday and his speech was cleverly written to provide plenty of powerful moments for the news networks to extract. 

We’re about to see a tidal wave of positive press coverage for Obama with a whole variety of storylines for the media to chose from—the historic possibility of a first black president, the derailing of the Clinton inevitability train, Obama’s phenomenal ability to bring new people into the Democratic fold—and Obama will have huge momentum in the run up to the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday. It is remarkable to think that someone who addressed the 2004 Democratic convention as a state senator is now likely to be doing so as the party’s presidential nominee in 2008. 

Written byJames Forsyth

James Forsyth is Political Editor of the Spectator. He is also a columnist in The Sun.

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