Alex Massie Alex Massie

Obama’s European Gambit

Matt Yglesias wrote a column last week in which he disputed what he termed the “counterintuitive” view that President Obama’s relations with Europe will not necessarily improve as much or as swiftly as is commonly imagine. On the contray, he suggested, simpley a) not being George W Bush and b) not going out of his way to insult or alienate Europeans would indeed go a long way towards reviving a spirit of transatlantic comity. Robert Kaplan made some similar points in the Atlantic: Obama enters the market at a time when US foreign policy stock is so depressed, the only way is up.

Now clearly there’s something to this. European public opinion is likely to be vastly more receptive to President Obama than it has been to President Bush and it’s true that this may create some room for European governments to hop on board and enjoy the ride alongside the new American president. But at the risk of seeming a terrible spoilsport, might I suggest that  friendly and polite attitude may not be enough?

This week, for instance, NATO meets in Brussels and, for some reason, the idea of Georgia and the Ukraine joining the alliance is back on the agenda. Perhaps the new President will be able to persuade us that this is a fine and sensible idea, but it’s not clear what arguments he can deploy that are not already in the field. And if he wants a favour on this then it’s reasonable to suppose that there’ll be a price to be paid elsewhere.

Then there’s Iran. It’s no secret that Obama’s proposals for engagement with Tehran have worried some in Vienna, Berlin, Paris and London. Now it may well be that Obama’s ideas are good ones, but he hasn’t yet (obviously) persuaded Europe that they are.

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