We should be wary about getting overexcited about a single opinion poll but the new Newsweek poll will be causing some heartburn among Obama supporters. Last month’s Newsweek poll put Obama ahead of McCain 51 to 36 but in this month’s poll the gap has closed to Obama 44 McCain 41. The McCain camp can take further encouragement from the fact that 85 percent of undecided voters are non-Hispanic whites and the vast majority of these voters do not have a college degree; Obama has had real difficulty in gaining traction among this demographic.
Obama’s lead in the RCP average is now less than five percent. Considering that the incumbent Republican’s approval rating is only around 30 percent—31 percent in the RCP average and 28 in the Newsweek poll, the Democrats should be slightly concerned that Obama is not further ahead. If McCain can keep the gap in the low single figures then he has a great chance of overtaking Obama in the final weeks of the campaign as attention shifts to who is best qualified to be Commander in Chief.
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