Did you see the news? Hillary Clinton is a shoo-in to win the election. OK. No-one is saying it quite yet. Certainly not the TV channels in the US, which have their eye on Super Bowl-esque viewing figures for this Sunday’s presidential election debate. Calling it now would put a bit of a dampener on the final month of campaigning for everyone. But a poll released by CNN this week gives the clearest indication yet that Clinton has it in the bag.
It is not a survey of voter intentions. It is not a question asking Americans who they want as their president. Instead, it is a poll showing Barack Obama’s approval ratings hitting a record high for his second term. With 55 per cent of voters saying the president is doing a good job, it matches his best performance since his stratospheric ratings during his first year in office. The implications go beyond Obama’s legacy. They will have an impact when voters go to the polls to elect a new president on November 8. Forecasters say no other factor has a bigger impact on election outcome than the sitting president’s approval rating. And that’s very good news for Clinton.
Look at the six open seat elections – when the president was not running – during the past century. All three candidates running for the same party as an incumbent with an approval rating of less than 50 per cent lost the election. Two of the three running to succeed a president with a score above 50 per cent won the popular vote (although Al Gore in 2000 still lost).
This is not to say that Clinton and Donald Trump’s performance and policies have no influence. That the race has been as tight as it is reflects Clinton’s disastrous campaign – with its lingering questions of trust, ties to Wall Street and health worries – and Trump’s ability to tread an unpredictable path. But with Clinton easing ahead after beating her rival in the first presidential debate, it suggests her polling numbers are short of a theoretical ceiling set by Obama’s popularity while Trump may not have any higher to climb.
Friday brought another dose of goodish news for the Democratic candidate. The latest employment figures showed the economy adding 156,000 jobs in September, a touch short of the forecast of 172,000, but a solid number nonetheless. Some forecasting models put economic outlook as the second most important factor in deciding an election – after the incumbent’s rating. So the jobs numbers should help Clinton, while making it more difficult for Trump’s populist message of doom to bite beyond the Rust Belt, where we know people are hurting.
Overall, the numbers suggest Americans think life is pretty swell. All of which suggests Clinton will win this historic election. Why shake things up with a man who so clearly represents a period of huge upheaval? Unless, of course, Trump can upset the precedents one more time in this topsy turvy election.
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