‘This is no time for a novice’ was undoubtedly the line of the conference season. It is the one that people will remember six months from now. But the effectiveness of it will to a significant extent depend on events outside of Brown or Cameron’s control.
It looks as if the US presidential race is breaking decisively in Barack Obama’s favour. Obama’s lead in the polling averages is now the largest it has been since June and his numbers are trending upwards. Obama and Cameron’s levels of experience are roughly comparable and so his election will become a test of whether novices can lead in these troubled times.
If by the time of the next general election, which will probably be about 16 months into an Obama presidency, Obama is seen as a success, the line will lose most of its force. It will be a stretch to argue that while America is doing just fine with a novice president, the situation is too serious for Britain to have one. A successful Obama presidency could also set off a yearning for a generataional turning of the page which sees the Browns, Mandelsons and Campbells of this world consigned to history.
However, if in 2010 a president Obama were to look out of his depth in responding to the worsening financial crisis or a deteriorating global geo-political situation, the line would be even more powerful than it is now. Brown’s point would appear to have been vindicated.
Tellingly, Cameron’s retort to the novice line—“The risk is not in making a change. The risk is sticking with what you’ve got and expecting a different result”—was borrowed from Obama. Team Cameron will be hoping that if elected, Obama provides them with the most effective rebuttal to Brown’s jibe possible.
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