OK: I’m convinced: one EU referendum might not be enough

We now have to take seriously the possibility that in the EU referendum Britain will vote to leave. I had hardly contemplated that. At the time (in January 2013) I saw the Prime Minister’s pledge to consult the electorate as a tactical move, designed to conciliate his party. It may well have helped David Cameron hold off the Ukip at the last general election, and secure the winning edge his party achieved. But those of us who supposed (as did I) that the electorate would never vote to leave, so a referendum was a pretty low-risk gamble with our membership of the EU, may wonder now if we were right. The polls are more volatile than had seemed likely; meanwhile the underlying strength of the appeal of EU membership — which rests upon the underlying strength of the EU itself — is taking a big knock. On Greece and on migration the institution is looking thoroughly incompetent. Our continent feels less settled than it did two and a half years ago. There’s danger in the air. On balance, I still think we’ll vote to stay, almost come what may. But in uncertain times, and given the propensity of senior figures on the continent to say and do things that on this side of the Channel appear as red rags to the Europhobic bull, it’s becoming possible to imagine the whole referendum thing careering out of control. On the stay or leave question, both sides need to accept that the other could win. So I think we should look again at a proposal that Dominic Cummings, a former special adviser in the Education department and prominent critic of the Prime Minister, put forward earlier this year. In June, Mr Cummings (a fierce Eurosceptic now attached to one of the groups campaigning for a ‘leave’ result) floated the idea that if Britain voted to reject Mr Cameron’s new terms of membership, a second referendum should be promised, to take place after our government had negotiated with our European partners the proposed terms of our departure.