Few things could make Nigel Farage squirm, but a question from Jordan Peterson at this week’s Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (ARC) conference seems to have done the trick. During a fireside talk, the Canadian psychologist asked the Reform leader whether long-term, monogamous, heterosexual, child-centred marriages were the foundation stone of a civilised society.
After conceding that, having been divorced twice, he might not be the best advocate for stable unions, Farage, a father of four, responded that ‘we need higher birth rates’ and emphasised the importance of our ‘Judeo-Christian’ culture. ‘Of course we need higher birth rates,’ Farage said. ‘But we’re not going to get higher birth rates in this country until we can get some sense of optimism.’
The narrative goes that Gen Z have sunk into a state of near-total disillusionment
Young people in the UK today might well disagree, however, given they appear to have a dispiritingly low opinion of our culture and values. Just last week, a Times survey revealed 48 per cent of Gen Zers believe Britain is a racist country; just 36 per cent disagreed. A paltry 11 per cent would fight for us; half think we are stuck in the past. One 22-year old reported that, when abroad on holiday: ‘I sort of try to be quiet because I don’t want people to know where I’m from.’ A separate poll has suggested a fifth of young people would rather live in a dictatorship.
There are many reasons to want our birth rate – which at 1.6 is far below the replacement rate of at least 2.1 – to increase. Worsening demographics are likely to mean a much higher welfare bill in the future, yet fewer workers to fund it. The share of the country aged over 65 rose from 14 per cent in 1974, to 16 per cent in 2004, to 19 per cent in 2022. Few believe Labour will do what it takes to slash benefits, reform the NHS or resolve the crisis in social care, meaning politicians are likely to borrow more, and at some point the UK will face a bond market crunch.
It’s possible, as Farage says, that reviving a sense of optimism may spur the young into starting and growing their families. It may also help restore young people’s faith in the Western model of free markets and free nations.
The narrative goes that Gen Z, and younger Millennials, have sunk into a state of near-total disillusionment. As house prices have soared, the dream of home ownership has faded further into the distance. University is failing to deliver the promised results: research from the Institute for Fiscal Studies has revealed around one-fifth of students can expect to be worse off over their lifetimes for having gone to university, as taxation, lost earnings during the years of study and repaying tuition fees swallow up any benefit they might have gained.
Then there’s the fear that they are paying into a system which won’t cough up when they themselves reach retirement. It is estimated that there are nearly 13 million pensioners in the UK, costing the Exchequer £137.5 billion – or 55 per cent of the state’s total welfare spending. The Office for National Statistics projects the number of pensioners to rise to 15 million in just over 20 years’ time. How can we possibly retain the pension triple lock under these circumstances?
These problems need addressing if we are to shake ourselves from the current economic torpor. But we shouldn’t be surprised if they have only a negligible impact on our birth rate. Hungary spends almost 6 per cent of GDP on pronatalist policies: maternity benefits last up to three years, families receive housing subsidies, mothers with four or more children are exempt from income tax. Yet their fertility rate has only risen from 1.23 in 2011 to 1.51 in 2023. It may continue to rise, but for now the long-term trend is population shrinkage.
ARC speakers can proselytise the benefits of the family unit, but the fact remains that, given the choice, some women won’t have children and many will only want one or two. We may need a strategy of adaptation rather than mitigation.
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