Few Conservative MPs are expected to rebel on tomorrow’s Opposition Day motion on tax credits, mainly because defying the whip to vote with Labour on a motion that is non-binding on the government is pretty pointless. But that doesn’t mean that the internal Tory revolt on the matter isn’t building.
More and more big names are speaking out on the matter, and the Chancellor opponents now see the cut as an ideal way of undermining his bid to be leader. They want to make it about his personal judgement and awareness of the struggles that ‘hardworking people’ face. One of those who would rather George Osborne doesn’t succeed in his bid to be leader says that if the Chancellor doesn’t back down, those campaigning against the cut ‘have done enough to hang it round his neck when the shit goes down. Whatever side of George you are, this is a policy he has to take full responsibility for. Real leaders need to stand up and be counted, not disappear in a submarine’.
Currently the opposition is being vocalised largely in private party meetings, not in the Commons, as the instrument enabling this cut passed with a majority of 35 in September. But the Lords is likely to end up debating a rare ‘fatal’ motion to kill the instrument in the Upper Chamber when it comes before peers next Monday. That motion doesn’t need to be tabled until Friday afternoon, but provided it goes down under a name that a good number of peers respect, it could attract significant support. If peers succeed in voting through the ‘fatal’ motion, then ministers would have to re-table the instrument in the Commons as an instrument must have agreement in both houses. At this point many more Tories than the very small number expected to rebel in tomorrow’s Opposition Day debate may feel compelled to cause a bit more of a fuss.
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