Osborne suffers from being the Microsoft to Cameron’s Apple

George Osborne’s battle to become Conservative leader may well be tougher than the battle he faces from the Labour opposition. The Chancellor delivers his eighth Budget tomorrow with only 31 percent of Britons believing he has done a good job as Chancellor. The backdrop for his set-piece speech is perhaps more troubling: only 26 percent say their personal finances are better off than last year and 31 percent think the economy has improved. And yet, despite this, Osborne and Cameron have a 15 point lead over Labour’s team on economic trust. While Osborne has received many plaudits for moving to the political centre ground after May last year, he has seen only small benefit so far. His favourability ratings have improved slightly since before the election, but even at his peak only 25 percent of Britons had a favourable opinion of him. And herein lies the crux: the Chancellor lacks what his best political friend – the Prime Minister – has. Likeability. Worryingly for Osborne, his biggest rival, Boris Johnson, exudes it. Perhaps a bigger concern for George Osborne is that Boris is also more popular among Conservative voters: 68 percent have a favourable view of the Mayor of London compared to 52 percent who are favourable towards the Chancellor. A ConservativeHome survey suggests that among party members – the more immediate electorate – the difference is even starker: Boris has a +56 satisfaction rating compared to -7 for Osborne. Just before Boris begins filling the bookshelves of Downing Street with Roman mythology, it is worth bearing in mind that popularity does not necessarily translate into political credibility. Winning a leadership battle is not just about being seen as Prime Ministerial however, as the Labour Party can most certainly attest to. Any number of factors are at play in a leadership contest, though of course the Conservative membership will not only be choosing their party leader but also the next Prime Minister (assuming David Cameron steps down ahead of the next General Election). The race to succeed David Cameron will be played out in the shadow of the EU referendum. Candidates and potential candidates will be building and breaking support bases among MPs and members with their decision over whether to Leave or Remain. Osborne also suffers from being the early favourite (recently overtaken by Boris) in a race in which favourites tend not to win. David Cameron and Iain Duncan Smith were hardly considered front runners. On the other side of the aisle, Jeremy Corbyn overcame odds of 100/1 to succeed Ed Miliband. The challenge for the Chancellor is that he has been at the side of the Prime Minister for over a decade. He lacks David Cameron’s personal touch and Gordon Brown’s gravitas. It is difficult to shift the image of a politician who has been at the top of British politics for so long. Right now, George Osborne is suffering from being the Microsoft to David Cameron’s Apple. Cameron has the sleek exterior and salesmanship of Apple which guaranteed market leadership for the product. Much like Microsoft, Osborne has a reputation for effectiveness but not the adulation of his trendier rival. Ultimately though, Osborne needs to win over the party membership before he worries about the wider public. The Chancellor will need to maximise his time at Number 11 to appeal to the membership that will be responsible for his fate. His priorities will be to strengthen his Conservative credentials (the impact of the EU referendum will be pivotal), highlight his economic record and his leadership skills, as well as prove his ability to defeat the opposition. His most immediate opposition is not the Labour Party but pretenders to the Conservative throne.