According to John Rentoul, the combination of the budget and Cam Dine With Me* has shunted Labour into a ten point lead in the opinion polls. Tuesday’s Independent/ComRes poll puts Labour on 43% (+3) and the Tories – as you may have worked out by now – on 33% (-4).
How to spin this? 1. It’s only one poll. 2. The poll that counts is the general election. 3. Better to take the hit on 50p and Granny-raiding now, not later. 4. This is a verdict on the coalition, not Labour. Voters will change their views when they must think about Ed Miliband. 5. Who cares?
Each of these points has some merit. Nevertheless, I’m not sure they will do. Consider this, as reported by Mr Rentoul:
This may have been exacerbated by the “Premier League donors” row. Even so, it is, even if only in snapshot form, evidence that the budget appears to have reinforced negative stereotypes about the Tory party. Who could have foreseen that this might be the result of a tax cut for those making six times average earnings allied with the removal of tax credits for medium-income workers and putting 300,000 more members of the middle-class into the 40% tax-bracket?Two-thirds of people (66 per cent) agree that “the measures announced in the Budget show that the Conservatives are the party of the rich”, while 27 per cent disagree and 7 per cent don’t know.
Individually, many (though not all) the measures Osborne announced were justifiable; collectively there is some evidence to suppose they were not quite as successful as the Chancellor might have hoped.
*Bravo to the Daily Mirror for their headline.
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