Nigel Farage’s latest intervention—declaring that Ukip is ‘going to take the lead making the case for voting to leave the EU in the referendum—neatly sums up the dilemma facing the Out campaign. On the one hand, there’s a danger that if it doesn’t get moving now then the In campaign will have a massive, and possibly insurmountable, advantage by the time the vote is actually called. On the other, if Out is too closely associated with Ukip then it won’t be able to get the 50.1 percent of the vote that it needs to win the referendum. For while Farage might be quite brilliant at motivating the 13 percent who voted Ukip, he also alienates a lot of people too. Indeed, the post-election manoeuvrings against Farage within Ukip were driven by the fear that his controversialist approach was alienating the undecided voters that the Out campaign will need to win.
As I say in the column this week, Out has a problem in that the Tories and business people who might support it don’t want to break cover until they can see what Cameron has got out of the renegotiation; Downing Street has been effective in urging people not to undercut the Prime Minister by saying they are for leaving while negotiations are ongoing. But the longer the putative Out campaign leaves it, the bigger the advantage that the In will have at the start of the actual campaign.
Farage is the most prominent Outer in the country. If the case for leaving is not to become seen as simply the case for voting Ukip, then the Out camp is going to need to find some other big names to make its case. For without that, Out and Ukip will become interchangeable in the public’s mind. If that happens, In will win the referendum at a canter.
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