During the early hours of Wednesday, India launched airstrikes targeting nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, killing at least eight people, with Islamabad claiming as many as 26 may have died. In a press release issued overnight, the Indian government said the strikes were aimed at ‘terrorist infrastructure’ in response to the April 22 terrorist attack in Pahalgam town of Indian administered Kashmir. New Delhi has blamed Pakistan for the terrorist attack, while Islamabad denies being involved.
In a press briefing, officials from the Indian defence and external affairs ministries said last night’s strikes targeted camps and hideouts affiliated with Pakistan based jihadist outfits Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammed. Masood Azhar, the head of Jaish-e-Muhammad, which India claims to have targeted in Bahawalpur, has reportedly confirmed that members of his family and close associates were killed in the airstrikes. Bahawalpur town, which is in the southern part of Pakistan’s most populous Punjab province, is the deepest India has struck since the two countries fought a full-blown war in 1971.
In return, Pakistan claims to have downed five Indian jets, with its military spokesperson saying that three Rafale jets, one SU-30 and one MiG-29 were taken down. While New Delhi has not officially responded to the claims, some Indian media houses said Indian jets had crashed in Indian-administered Kashmir, before the stories were removed. Aircraft debris has been found in Pampore town of Indian administered Kashmir, with pictures showing the label of a French manufacturer, hinting that this could be the residue of a Rafale jet. Local government sources confirmed that three fighter jets had crashed in Indian Kashmir, while a government source confirmed that an unidentified aircraft had crashed in Aklian Kalan in Indian Punjab province.
While Pakistani officials say the state will respond to the Indian strikes at a ‘time, place, means of our own choice’, shelling is already underway across the Line of Control that separates the disputed Kashmir territory, killing at least eight in the Poonch town of the Indian-administered section, according to a local government official.
With its airspace closed and all airports shut in Pakistan, international airlines are rerouting their flights. US President Donald Trump has said the ongoing situation is ‘a shame’, while China’s foreign ministry said it found India’s military operation ‘regrettable’, as the world expresses its concern over an escalation between these nuclear armed neighbours not seen since the 1999 war.
In 2019, New Delhi similarly launched airstrikes following an attack, with India and Pakistan engaging in an aerial dogfight. But the conflict six years ago was largely limited to Kashmir. The fact that India has targeted officially recognised Pakistani territory is a trigger for further escalation. These fears were exacerbated by Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri’s statement this morning that New Delhi has a ‘compulsion both to deter and to pre-empt [further attacks]’ suggesting further strikes could come from either side of the Indo-Pak border. Authorities in Indian-administered Kashmir are evacuating citizens, while the government of Pakistan’s Punjab province has increased security at sensitive installations.
While continued clashes across the Line of Control are a given, if another strike is launched on official territory on either side, it could trigger an all-out war. India had already revoked a 65-year-old water treaty with Pakistan in the aftermath of the Pahalgam attack.
Even more concerning is that the escalation could potentially drag other powers into the conflict, most notably China, which remains allied with Pakistan as New Delhi grows closer to the United States. India has had skirmishes with China in recent years over their own dispute over the northeastern part of Kashmir. Chinese infrastructure investments in Pakistan, routed via Kashmir over the past decade, further suggest that Beijing will react if war breaks out.
Still, there remains a way for both New Delhi and Islamabad to deescalate the conflict. Both can assert that they have triumphed domestically. India can claim that it has eliminated terror groups, while Pakistan can point out that it has downed Indian aircraft. Whether the religiously-inspired forces at the helm of these two nuclear armed rivals want to deescalate though is another question.
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