James Kirkup James Kirkup

Paterson resigns. Johnson is diminished

(Getty)

What are the long-term political implications of the government’s clown show over Owen Paterson? My guess is that voters won’t pay too much attention, but MPs certainly will. And that could matter at least as much.

Start with the public. Do voters feel angry that their Prime Minister doesn’t play by the rules — written and unwritten — of politics and government? There’s a lot to be angry about, and ripping up the rules against cash-for-lobbying certainly justifies rage. And maybe in time, the idea of the PM as leader of a privileged clique who don’t play by the same rules as the rest of us will indeed prove harmful to the Conservatives’ vote. But so far, I don’t see abundant evidence that ‘one rule for them’ is achieving the salience that would be needed to make it a serious electoral issue. Maybe if Labour can succeed in keeping these stories alive — and eye-catching — over a sustained period, the issue will start to hurt.

But right now, most voters have bigger fish to fry: when it comes to what matters to the public, inflation at 5 per cent vs parliamentary rules on standards isn’t much of a contest. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson’s unique political appeal can survive and even thrive on the idea that he’s a rule-breaker. Put it another way, if the public as a whole was as angry as Twitter about the Prime Minister’s disregard for democratic norms (and the rule of law), then the 2019 general election would have had a rather different outcome.

All prime ministers use up their political capital: that’s the nature of governing

But this isn’t one of those ‘outside the beltway’ cases that people (yes, me included) sometimes write when we want to sound worldly and wise about politics. Because the failed assault on the parliamentary standards regime does matter, it really does.

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