The Welsh nationalists have won almost half the vote in the Caerphilly by-election, storming to a victory in a seat that has voted Labour for more than a century. The party’s candidate Lindsay Whittle took 47.4 per cent of the vote, with Reform UK’s Llyr Powell taking 36 per cent and Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe on a miserable 11 per cent. As expected, the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats all lost their deposits. Turnout was exceptionally high for a Senedd race: 50.4 per cent at a by-election, despite miserable conditions on polling day.
Caerphilly is an ominous portent for the Welsh parliamentary elections next May. It is sometimes said that the Tories are the most successful party in political history, but Welsh Labour would perhaps be more accurate. Since the 1920s, they have topped every general and devolved election: now under Keir Starmer they are on course to finish third. In Caerphilly, their vote ‘dissolved like the snow’, in the words of one campaigner. It is, in the words of Sir John Curtice, the ‘biggest drop Labour has ever suffered in a by-election in Wales.’ Strategists had to rely on an ineffective ‘stop Reform’ message and a mawkish plea to honour the memory of the previous MS here, Hefin David.
Reform UK took a third of the vote – but they will clearly be disappointed. A poll last week had them coming out on top, with 42 per cent. The party boasted thousands of declarations of support, trialled new heat mapping technology and sent leader Nigel Farage to the seat multiple times. The ten-point gap with Plaid will prompt questions about what could have been done differently. Throughout the campaign, senior figures were divided on whether Plaid or Labour was their main opponent. 'Send Starmer a message' featured prominently in their campaign in its final days. Voters clearly decided to do just that – but by voting for the other viable alternative to Labour.
A tricky budget process looms before next May, with Plaid likely to demand an unreasonable hefty pound of flesh for any support.
Plaid will be delighted by this result. Lindsay Whittle has stood 13 time before: victory at the 14th attempt will taste exceptionally sweet. In his victory speech, he urged the governments in Cardiff and Westminster to listen, saying he wants a 'better deal' for every corner of Wales. The party was clearly effective in squeezing the Labour vote: on the doorsteps they hammered home an anti-Starmer message to sell themselves as the party of change. Whittle's triumph means that Labour now holds only 29 of the 60 seats in the Senedd. A tricky budget process looms before next May, with Plaid likely to demand an unreasonable hefty pound of flesh for any support.
Tactical voting was a feature noted by campaigners of all parties. Feedback on the doors suggests some remarkable decisions taken by voters, with canvassers reporting that some Tories were backing Plaid to 'stop Farage' while others said Labour voters backed Reform for unionist reasons. Voters clearly saw that this was a Plaid/Reform contest and acted accordingly. The result will spark much debate about the potential for progressive tactical voting in high turnout elections to block Reform. Wales has always had a relatively left-of-centre political culture compared to England: what worked here for Plaid might not translate elsewhere.
One thing is for sure: such a dire result in a longtime stronghold will deepen splits in Welsh Labour about the direction of Starmer's government. In Westminster, there will likely be increased pressure for a more 'progressive' direction of travel, to try and forge a similar cordon sanitaire strategy for 2029.
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