Plan B

On 9 May 2003 I was having dinner with Nigella Lawson, Charles Saatchi and Dominic Lawson at the Rib Room of the Carlton Tower Hotel when the subject of who would make a good leader of the Conservative party came up. Iain Duncan Smith was struggling and didn’t look as though he’d last the year.

‘I think Dominic would be perfect,’ said Charles.

‘I think I could do it,’ said Nigella. ‘I could get a seat and be leading the party within five years.’

I suggested Boris Johnson, at that time the editor of this magazine and the Conservative MP for Henley. I hadn’t meant it particularly seriously, but when Nigella dismissed the idea I felt an unexpected surge of loyalty. Not only was he my boss, but I’d known him on and off since we were at Oxford together in the mid-Eighties. I regarded him then —and still do —as the most naturally gifted politician of our generation.

‘Care to make a wager?’ I said.

Nigella suggested £15,000.
At that point I should have laughed and changed the subject. But I didn’t.

‘Within what time frame?’ I asked.

‘Seven years.’

‘Make it 15 and you’re on.’

She agreed and — God help me — we shook on it. As the Tories gather in Manchester, under the threat of an economic meteorite strike, talk will inevitably turn to who might succeed David Cameron if the deficit-reduction plan collapses. Is Boris really a serious contender?

Back in 2003, few people in their right mind would have put £15,000 on Boris becoming the leader of the Conservative party by 2018, but it looks less idiotic today. Ladbrokes has him down as the favourite to succeed David Cameron by 2015, with George Osborne trailing him in second place.