Reform’s party conference is in full swing in Birmingham, as the leadership continue to hammer home their pivotal role in the Tory party’s disastrous result in July. But as Nigel Farage and friends celebrate their own success in the general election – with five MPs entering parliament – the group is looking to the future too. As Katy Balls wrote in this week’s Spectator, the right-wing party is keen to see more Labour upsets between now and the next national poll with Farage promising his party will cause trouble for Sir Keir’s lefty lot. How worried, then, should Starmer’s army be?
A new review published today by Labour Together – entitled ‘How Labour Won’ – suggests that, despite Farage’s threats, it’s the Tory to Labour switchers Starmer should keep focused on. The report, which is seen in No. 10 as the definitive account of the election, notes that ‘a decisive fraction’ of 2019’s Tories switched to Labour in July after mass frustration with the ‘corruption and incompetence’ of the Conservative crowd. The thinktank, run now by ex-Labour MP Jonathan Ashworth, noted that while Reform was the ‘largest beneficiary’ of the Tory collapse, Farage’s party took a ‘much smaller number of votes’ from the Labour lot. Analysing the relative impact of switchers on the main parties, the review concluded that, for the Starmerites:
The decisive group were Conservative to Labour switchers – 14 per cent of Labour’s vote share. In a Conservative-Labour contest, every one of their votes counts double. They subtract one vote from the Conservative pile and add one to Labour. This is what makes them decisive. They are the most important group to win.
How very interesting…
It’s not all plain sailing for Sir Keir, however. Published ahead of his first party conference as PM, the review notes that there remains an element of scepticism about the Starmtroopers:
This Labour government has been cautiously hired, on a trial basis, liable to prompt dismissal if it deviates even slightly from its focus on voters’ priorities. Voters hope it will deliver, but they do not necessarily expect it… The reality is that few voters are loyal. Many are currently giving Labour the benefit of the doubt, but they are watching, warily. Already, ex-Conservative voters are anxious Labour might not have really changed.
Crikey. Way to strike fear into the hearts of Labour MPs still trying to enjoy their recent success, eh?
And on ‘why the Conservatives lost’ in July, Labour Together’s review noted that bad behaviour from the previous government had led to voter ‘disgust’ this time around – showcasing comments from those who felt they were ‘really selfish’ and, er, ‘concerned with bettering their own careers’. With cronyism accusations and a freebie scandal already under his belt, Starmer may want to pay particular attention here…
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