Westminster used to think that 2012 would be the year that the ‘feel-good factor’ returned. Back in May 2010, all three parties expected the economic mood to lift. Combine that with the Olympics and the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee and it seemed a good bet that, come September, the country would be smiling. Labour frontbenchers feared that David Cameron would seize his chance to go to the country in search of a majority of his own.
Now even the most optimistic believe that the economy will remain in a critical condition. Yet, against the odds, Cameron remains in the ascendant. The Conservatives are polling significantly ahead of their performance in the last general election. There are still fears on the Labour side, and even among some Liberal Democrats, that Cameron will, whatever the Fixed-term Parliaments Act says, head to the country in 2012.
From a Conservative perspective, Cameron starts 2012 in his strongest position for four years. His wielding of the veto in Brussels has united what was becoming an increasingly fractious parliamentary party. Many Tory MPs believe that it has answered the question of whether Cameron is a Heath or a Thatcher. Almost as importantly, the veto has swung what used to be known as the ‘right-wing press’ behind him.
But Cameron is, of course, not just leader of the Conservative party. He is also a coalition Prime Minister. From that perspective, the situation looks less rosy. This last year, the coalition lost its innocence. The referendum on the alternative vote showed that the Prime Minister would, when push came to shove, always put his party ahead of his alliance with the Liberal Democrats.
Cameron had a gentlemen’s agreement with Nick Clegg to keep the campaign civil; but when he realised that his side would never forgive him if he lost the referendum, that went out of the window. The ‘no’ campaign launched a string of vicious attacks on the Deputy Prime Minister.
The referendum campaign still rankles with those close to Clegg. One Lib Dem minister described it to me this week as ‘the most monstrous breach of faith’ — one that means Clegg ‘can’t assume a trusting working relationship’ with Cameron.
Following the referendum defeat, the Liberal Democrats have become more assertive, more prepared to parade their differences with their coalition partners. But Clegg remains a deputy, not a prime minister.
Nowhere is this more apparent than on European policy. Cameron and Clegg had long discussions before December’s European Council about negotiating strategy. But Cameron was the man in the room in Brussels. He made the decision to use the veto while his deputy was fast asleep in a Sheffield flat.
Even by the coalition’s diminished standards of collective responsibility, Clegg has gone to remarkable lengths to distance himself from the veto. He went on television to denounce it and absented himself from the front bench for Cameron’s statement on it; his aides have even suggested that he won’t let Cameron go to the next European Council unaccompanied.
What’s behind this behaviour is a complex mix of emotions and beliefs. Lord Ashdown, Clegg’s political mentor, has been drumming into him that he mustn’t let the Tories steamroller him again, that he must stand up for what he believes in. Another motivation is Clegg’s determination to avoid being outflanked by rivals within the Lib Dems.
During the referendum campaign, he was made to look like piggy in the middle as Vince Cable and Chris Huhne denounced the Tories’ tactics. If Clegg had not objected to the veto, Huhne — a man so committed to the European ideal that he treated British motorways as German autobahns when he was an MEP —would again have been able to pose as the leading Liberal Democrat prepared to stand up to Cameron and the Conservatives.
Shortly before Christmas, Clegg chaired a meeting of Lib Dem aides, ministers and European experts to discuss European policy. It was suggested that he should insist on a Cabinet reshuffle in which the Lib Dems would take over the Foreign Office. He rejected this advice. He would have known that Cameron could never agree to hand over control of European policy to his Europhile deputy. But Clegg is planning to make his own European diplomacy more visible.
The worry for the coalition is that, unlike other coalition rows, the Europe issue won’t go away. It is threatening to become the dominant political issue of this parliament. The question is whether the coalition can pursue a course that is acceptable both to Clegg and to an increasingly Eurosceptic Conservative party.
The dilemma will become particularly acute if the European single currency falls apart. Then, the whole structure of the European Union would be up for debate. The government will have to take a view on the fundamentals, and it is hard to see how Cameron could satisfy all sides within the coalition.
If he has to choose, then judging by past performance, he will pick his party ahead of the coalition. This is partly for reasons of policy — Cameron is a Eurosceptic, albeit an incremental one — but also because of politics. He knows that he has to keep his party together on this issue.
The most interesting political question of 2012 is what Clegg would do if Cameron did again pick his party over him. A general election would certainly not be in the Liberal Democrats’ interests. But Clegg might start depicting himself as the leader of a government within a government. He would have to show that, to borrow a slogan, the Liberal Democrats are in coalition, not run by the coalition.
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