Politics: Can the coalition survive a good year for the Tories?

Westminster used to think that 2012 would be the year that the ‘feel-good factor’ returned. Back in May 2010, all three parties expected the economic mood to lift. Combine that with the Olympics and the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee and it seemed a good bet that, come September, the country would be smiling. Labour frontbenchers feared that David Cameron would seize his chance to go to the country in search of a majority of his own.

Now even the most optimistic believe that the economy will remain in a critical condition. Yet, against the odds, Cameron remains in the ascendant. The Conservatives are polling significantly ahead of their performance in the last general election. There are still fears on the Labour side, and even among some Liberal Democrats, that Cameron will, whatever the Fixed-term Parliaments Act says, head to the country in 2012.

From a Conservative perspective, Cameron starts 2012 in his strongest position for four years. His wielding of the veto in Brussels has united what was becoming an increasingly fractious parliamentary party. Many Tory MPs believe that it has answered the question of whether Cameron is a Heath or a Thatcher. Almost as importantly, the veto has swung what used to be known as the ‘right-wing press’ behind him.

But Cameron is, of course, not just leader of the Conservative party. He is also a coalition Prime Minister. From that perspective, the situation looks less rosy. This last year, the coalition lost its innocence. The referendum on the alternative vote showed that the Prime Minister would, when push came to shove, always put his party ahead of his alliance with the Liberal Democrats.

Cameron had a gentlemen’s agreement with Nick Clegg to keep the campaign civil; but when he realised that his side would never forgive him if he lost the referendum, that went out of the window.