Politics: Don’t bet on Ed Miliband to win it for the Tories

In the past few difficult months, the Cameroons have taken comfort from their belief that Ed Miliband will never be prime minister. After the local elections earlier this month, when Labour took far more Tory seats than expected, the silver lining for the government was the thought that Ed Miliband would now stay on as Labour leader until 2015.

When asked to justify their conviction that Miliband will never make it to Downing Street, the Cameroons offer three reasons. First, they reckon that the public just can’t see him as PM material. Second, they expect that the next election will be fought on the economy, the area where Labour is weakest. Finally, they note that if there is one group of people less convinced by Miliband minor that they are, it is the old Blairites who know how to win elections.

The last few days, however, have suggested that the Tories’ confidence in ­Miliband might be misplaced. A recent poll had him overtaking David Cameron as the least unpopular party leader. That may not sound like much, but, as the pollster Peter Kellner notes, since the last Budget, Cameron’s net approval rating has fallen by two points, while Miliband’s has increased by 22 — a dramatic shift by any standard.

Admittedly, the question of whether or not a party leader is doing a good job is different to who might make the best prime minister. On that, Tory sources say, the party’s private research still gives Cameron at least a 20-point advantage. If that research is right, they can be confident that their polling will improve in any election campaign, as the public focuses on who it actually wants in Downing Street.

More alarming for the Tories is the news that 43 per cent of those who support Labour have a highly negative attitude towards Cameron; 91 per cent of them think he is doing a bad job.