Downing Street is, in the words of one senior aide, in a mood of ‘sober reflection’ about how and why so many things have gone wrong in the past fortnight. The question now is whether the government can expect more of the same for the rest of the year. The answer will turn on two elections in May, the contest for the London mayoralty and the one to choose the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers.
Even those in No. 10 who most dislike Boris Johnson know that his re-election is crucial to their prospects. A Boris triumph would make the last few weeks seem like a blip rather than a permanent shift in the political landscape.
If Labour can’t take the capital, there’ll be a fresh bout of speculation about Ed Miliband’s leadership. Cameron will be able to argue that victory in London shows that the Tories are on course to be in government again after the next election. If Labour wins, on the other hand, the pressure will be off Miliband, and Cameron will begin to look like a one-term prime minister.
In Tory circles, there is mounting confidence that Boris will hold on. Last Friday, Lynton Crosby, Boris’s campaign director, addressed Tory aides in Downing Street. It was, by all accounts, an impressive presentation — one that left several suggesting that Crosby should brought in to run the Conservatives’ political operation. It has left the Tories confident that the Boris campaign will keep Ken Livingstone on the back foot and added to the sense that if the Tories can get their vote out, victory will be theirs.
The irony, as the Miliband camp is quick to point out, is that if the vote in London were a straight referendum on the government, the Tories would — according to the polls — lose.
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