The next general election may seem a long way away.
The next general election may seem a long way away. But for all three parties, the run-up to the local elections this month offers a chance to test their campaign strategies for 2015.
The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are using this period to remind voters of their achievements in office and reassure supporters that they remain distinct parties. But it is Labour that has by far the simplest and most effective message for 5 May: if you don’t like what the coalition is doing, vote for us.
After 13 years in government, Labour is relishing opposition. MPs who once dreaded having to knock on doors and defend Gordon Brown’s record are now eager to go out and canvass. Ed Miliband has developed a tan in the spring sunshine.
The challenge for Labour is not to let expectations get too high. The polls suggest huge gains for the party — up to a thousand seats — in the English council elections, as the Liberal Democrats pay the price for coalition. But Miliband’s aides are keen to stress that unseating Liberal Democrats is always difficult and that a 600-seat gain would be a good result. In Wales, Labour is on course to win an overall majority for the first time. The only cloud on its horizon is Scotland, where Alex Salmond looks likely to survive as first minister.
This needn’t bother Miliband much. The London papers have, sadly, stopped reporting Scottish politics. A poor result there will have little impact in Westminster.
Miliband is also the only party leader who can be relaxed about the main event on 5 May — the referendum on the alternative vote. He is supporting a change but no one will blame him if the result goes the other way. His party remains divided over what the best result would be.
But to both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, AV has taken on immense importance. Conservatives fear that if it passes, the country will never see a properly Tory government again, because future leaders will have to compromise their principles to pick up second preference votes.
The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, see AV as the first step towards the nirvana of proportional representation, and fear that referendum defeat would kill off their chances for a generation. Either Cameron or Clegg will probably be removed from the party leadership before the next election if they end up on the losing side.
If AV were to pass, David Cameron’s relationship with the Conservative party would be damaged beyond repair. At the moment, most Tories still see him as the man who brought them back to power after 13 years in opposition. After 5 May, he could become the man who failed to beat Gordon Brown, conceded a referendum on electoral reform to the Liberal Democrats and then lost it. The party would soon start casting round for an alternative champion.
Cameron has realised just how vulnerable a yes vote would make him. Last year, his plan was to stay above the fray during the referendum campaign. Back then, the Tory leadership seemed positively relaxed about the result. Donors were told that they should give to the party rather than the No campaign.
But by February, Cameron had changed course. He told Conservative Campaign Headquarters to give all possible support to the No campaign. He personally raised money for the cause, agreed to the No campaign’s targeting of Nick Clegg and made the Conservatives’ local election campaigns subordinate to the AV battle. One senior Central Office source says that ‘no one at CCHQ cares about the local elections. It is all about AV.’
Cameron, far from remaining above the fray, has been the most active of the three party leaders, making regular and effective speeches denouncing AV.
If he helps deliver a no vote, that will pile the pressure on Clegg. It was with the prospect of electoral reform that the Liberal Democrat leader persuaded his party to go into coalition with their traditional opponents. For that hope to die at the end of their first year in office would be quite a blow.
What is more, the nature of the campaign has meant that a referendum defeat would seem personal for Clegg. The No campaign has placed him at the centre of its efforts, arguing that AV will give him more power and allow him to break more promises. Defeat would be seen as a direct rejection of Clegg by the voters. His opponents would argue that it was proof that he contaminates whatever he touches.
The Liberal Democrats are also likely to lose a significant number of their seats in English local government and in the Scottish parliament on 5 May. A bad set of results would not necessarily produce a leadership challenge; there is still no credible replacement for Clegg within the party. But a heavy defeat would hugely increase the chances of the Liberal Democrats jettisoning him before the next election.
The party’s ministers say that Clegg fully understands the threat to his leadership. If he fails, he will head back to Brussels to become Britain’s European commissioner in 2014, allowing the party to pick a new leader ahead of the next election.
Six months ago, government ministers used to mock Miliband, saying he wouldn’t make it to the next election. Now, it is one of the two coalition leaders who seem destined to fall before 2015.
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