It’s been a poll-a-ramic few days, with the overall picture still being that Labour have enjoyed some post-bailout gains – particularly on economic competence – but remain trailing the Tories by some margin. Today’s Ipsos MORI poll is a case in point. It has the Tories down 5 on last month, and Labour up 7; but the Tory drop has to be seen through the prism of a “freakishly” high result for them last month, and – besides – they’re still 15 points clear of Brown & Co.
Perhaps the most encouraging poll for Labour supporters is the YouGov one conducted in marginal seats and broadcast by Channel 4 earlier. That has the Tories on 43 percent (down 2 from last month); Labour on 38 percent (up 6); and the Lib Dems on 12 percent (down 1) – a fairly significant readjustment, then. But, again, there are mitigating factors that should blunt any Labour excitement: chief among them the very fact that this poll was conducted in “battleground” constituencies (i.e. ones that Labour should hope to contest anyway). Tim Montgomerie writes a good analysis of that poll here.
The problem for Brown – and Labour – is that the so-called “superheroics” of his bank bailout are beginning to lose their shine, and the gloomy realities of recession are about to kick in. Any gains that have been made could be eroded swiftly. No.10 will hope to prevent that process by milking Deripaskagate for all its dubious worth.
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