Peter Hoskin

Poll-wise, it’s starting to look like summer 2008 again

Poll-wise, it's starting to look like summer 2008 again
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A poll to delight the Tories in today's Times.  The Populus effort has them on 42 percent (down 1 percentage point on last month); Labour on 28 percent (down 5); and the Lib Dems on 19 percent (up 3).  That matches Labour's total in two other recent polls, and suggests they're starting to plumb similar depths to last summer.  Cameron now also leads on the question of which leader is best to deal with the recession, by 41-32 over Brown.  And he's ahead, as normal, on taking Britain forward after the recession.

Perhaps the most eyecatching finding, though, is the rise in support for the 'Other' parties such as UKIP and the BNP - they've gained 3 percentage points since last month, to hit 12 percent.  Of course, this could be a statistical outlier.  But it's hard not to see it through the prism of the Lindsey oil refinery strikes, which keyed into many of the issues those parties campaign on.

Also noteworthy is the fact that economic confidence seems to have "bottomed out", actually rising by 2 points over the past month.  What the Balls Forecast does for that trend remains to be seen...