James Forsyth

Populus has the Tory lead at seven, down from ten two months ago

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The polls are coming thick and fast in this campaign and there’s another one just out with the YouGov tracker to come later on. Populus’s latest for The Times has the Tories on 39, Labour on 32 and the Lib Dems on 21.Populus last poll, taken in February, had the Tories on 40, Labour on 30 and the Lib Dems on 20.

Peter Riddell’s analysis is that the narrowing is largely due to increased economic optimism among voters. But I suspect what will cause the most concern at CCHQ is that Labour is more trusted to cut public spending without harming frontline services than the Tories.

As I report in the column tomorrow, Tory number crunchers now think that the party only needs to be five points ahead to win an overall majority so the results of this poll would still deliver them one. Anthony Well thinks there’ll be a Mori marginals poll out either today or tomorrow which should give us an idea of how things are going in these key seats.


Written byJames Forsyth

James Forsyth is Political Editor of the Spectator. He is also a columnist in The Sun.

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