Why should Labour keep Gordon Brown as their leader? If Labour come third behind the LibDems at the Euro elections, this question is certain to be raised in public by someone. I hear that the Dear Leader has prepared an answer: green shoots. Seriously. Look, he will say, the economy is on the turn. And when those green shoots come, people will thank him for leading us through the storm. No Brown, no gratitude. So why chuck him out, just when things are on the turn?
This is why today’s house price data from Nationwide has political significance: it will buttress Brown’s claim that he should stay to take credit for the recovery. True enough, houses are on the turn:
HOUSE PRICES, 1992-2009
And more broadly, economic sentiment is on the turn too – which is usually a precursor of GDP:
But it will be a brave, or rash, Prime Minister who points to these statistical upticks and says: green shoots.
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