When I was a Prevent counter terror officer a decade ago our case load was largely focused on Islamist terrorism – clear, defined ideological extremism.
Today the picture looks very different. The majority of cases involve ‘mixed, unclear or unstable ideologies’ or a simple ‘fixation with violence’. In other words, many people being referred no longer seem to have any specific ideology.
The programme is looking at behaviours that are ‘violence-oriented’, which risks blurring our understanding of the real terror threat in the UK.
According to the Home Office, there were 8,778 referrals to Prevent in the latest reporting period, up roughly 27 per cent on the previous year. At first glance these numbers appear to show a surge in radicalisation and extremism. Yet more than half of these referrals – 56 per cent – involved individuals with no identified ideology.
This shift suggests that Prevent is increasingly dealing with people who are fascinated with violence, have bigoted attitudes or engage in conspiratorial thinking rather than having coherent extremist beliefs backed by a group, cause or agenda.
The rise in referrals does not seem to be driven by an increase in extremist activity. Instead it appears to reflect Prevent’s scope quietly expanding beyond terrorism. The programme is looking at behaviours that are ‘violence-oriented’, which risks blurring our understanding of the real terror threat in the UK.
This trend is reinforced by the data. About a third of those referred had at least one recorded mental-health or neuro-diversity condition, with autism the most common. People with autism often find it harder to interpret social cues, manage intense fixations and conceal views that may worry others. As a result, some referrals may flag behaviour that is concerning but not ideologically motivated or indicative of terror risk.
Another significant factor is age. The largest cohort of referrals are children aged just 11–15. Kids who spend hours online may stumble across disturbing content and make clumsy, off-the-cuff comments. That does not mean they are drifting toward extremist violence. Yet they are now entering a Prevent system built for a very different purpose.
This broadening of Prevent’s scope – combined with the disproportionately high number of autistic individuals being referred – is reflected in how few cases are taken further. Of the 6,922 referrals, only 893 reached a multi-agency Channel panel and just 512 (7 per cent) led to further support. In the year ending 2025 the adoption rate – the proportion of cases taken forward because they were deemed to pose a genuine terror-threat risk – was slightly higher at 16.8 per cent. But that is still far below the 30 to 40 per cent adoption rates I saw during my near decade-long tenure at Prevent.
This shows how many people are being swept into a system they do not belong in. Greater vigilance in schools and local authorities may be contributing, especially in the wake of Southport. The Netflix drama Adolescence may also have brought increased attention to incel violence.
So how do we stop young children and autistic people – who pose no terror threat – from absorbing the time of counter terror officers and dragging Prevent away from its original purpose of intercepting genuine extremism before it becomes a danger?
Blurring Prevent’s mission risks reducing its effectiveness, stretching its limited resources and distorting its thresholds for action. When a framework designed for ideology-driven radicalisation begins to take in youth misbehaviour, autism-related fixation and online violence fascination, we lose clarity about what constitutes an extremist threat and what reflects a broader behavioural or welfare need.
These wider issues require a separate but parallel strategy led by schools, youth services, mental-health colleagues, social-media literacy programmes and community support. This should sit alongside Prevent but remain distinct, acknowledging that harmful ways of thinking may need intervention, yet not with tools designed for tackling organised terrorism.
Only by doing so can we ensure genuine extremism is identified and disrupted effectively.
Ghaffar Hussain is a former Prevent counter-terror officer
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