Nearly four weeks on from his failed coup, Evgeniy Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner group, has finally resurfaced in public. A video published on the social media app Telegram shows the mercenary chief apparently greeting newly–arrived fighters at a military camp in Belarus and praising them for their efforts on the front line in Ukraine.
Due to the near-darkness in which the footage was taken, only Prigozhin’s silhouette is visible; nevertheless, his distinctive bald head, faintly illuminated by the setting sun, and his voice make him confidently identifiable. It appears the video was taken in recent days at a military camp identified by some as the one at Osipovichy in the eastern Mogilev region.
Prigozhin’s speech shows that this is clearly not the end of the Wagner group
Although branding the Russian armed forces’ current efforts in Ukraine a ‘disgrace’, in a notable deviation from previous speeches given before and during his march on Moscow last month, Prigozhin was considerably more restrained in his criticism. To rousing cheers from the gathered crowd, Prigozhin said he was ‘pleased to welcome everyone onto Belarusian land’.
‘We fought with dignity. We did a lot for Russia,’ he continued. ‘What is currently happening on the Front is a disgrace that we have no need to take part in.’
Prigozhin said the decision had been taken for Wagner to remain in Belarus until they had the chance to ‘prove themselves in full’. Their presence, he said, would propel the Belarusian army to become the second best army in the world (presumably after Russia), and that if necessary they would fight alongside them.
On the question of what next, Prigozhin said the group’s future lay in Africa. With another veiled swipe at the Russian ‘special military operation’, Priogzhin said Wagner might return to Ukraine ‘when we can be sure we won’t be forced to disgrace ourselves and our experience’.
Historically, the Wagner chief has not held back from personally attacking the head of the Russian army, Valery Gerasimov, and defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, over what he sees as their failures to secure a swift, ruthless victory on the battlefield. During his rebellion in June, one of Prigozhin’s demands was that both men would be removed from their posts over their incompetence.
In his latest speech, Prigozhin talks of being ‘forced to disgrace ourselves’. This is a reference to his repeated accusations earlier in the year that Gerasimov and Shoigu were deliberately withholding ammunition and support from the Wagner group during the battle for Bakhmut. At the time, Prigozhin filmed himself, apoplectic with rage, standing in front of a rows of dead Wagner fighters laid out on the ground, accusing both men of being responsible for the casualties.
Prigozhin’s reappearance comes after weeks of speculation over how he has evaded punishment for his coup. Confirmation from Putin himself last week that he met with Prigozhin, as well as reported sightings of the Wagner chief in St Petersburg suggested that, for whatever reason, he thought himself able to evade the condition of self-exile in Belarus imposed on him in return for immunity to prosecution. That he has finally resurfaced in Belarus with a toned down rhetoric suggests that, for the time being, he is willing to play ball with the Kremlin.
Prigozhin’s speech shows, though, that this is clearly not the end of the Wagner group. According to the independent monitoring project Belorusskiy Gayun, as many as 2,500 Wagner fighters have already come to Belarus, with more bound to follow. Prigozhin’s presence at their camp suggests he has no intention of handing over control of the group to Russia, Belarus or anyone else. For all of Putin’s talk that Wagner ‘does not exist’, that the mercenary group will be training up the Belarusian army very much suggests the opposite.
What Prigozhin chooses to do, or is free to do, next remains to be seen. But while the Wagner group remain battle-ready and loyal to him, Putin’s Prigozhin troubles won’t go away.
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