Prime ministers can’t pick the crises that define them

In a non-Covid world, next week would be the Tory party conference. Boris Johnson would march on to the stage in Birmingham to receive the adulation of his grassroots supporters. The biggest Tory majority since Margaret Thatcher’s final victory in 1987 would have been celebrated. There would have been cheer after cheer for the new intake of Tory MPs, elected in seats that had been Labour for generations. It would have been a triumphalist conference with much talk of how the Tories had won a two-term victory.

The virus has changed everything. Tory conference is now an online only event with short speeches. Instead of attempting to set the agenda for the rest of the year, Johnson’s own address will be all about ‘delivery’: an attempt to emphasise that the Tories are fulfilling their manifesto commitments despite the pandemic.

The Tories are now behind Labour for the first time since Johnson became leader, albeit only in one poll. Johnson’s own approval ratings are the worst they have been since before last year’s election campaign, according to YouGov.

The grassroots have not fallen out of love with their leader but are less keen on him than they once were; he is now in the bottom third of the ConservativeHome league table of the cabinet, behind Baroness Evans, Brandon Lewis and Alok Sharma. His backbenchers are becoming more rebellious. More than 50 of them signed the Brady amendment, which calls for parliamentary votes before nationwide Covid restrictions are introduced — enough to wipe out the government’s majority if it had come to a vote. In short, it feels very much like mid-term, despite the fact that it is less than a year since the general election.

Johnson’s allies are quick to point out that this government is facing challenges unlike those faced by any other post-war government.